-----2005-2006 Winter Forecast-----

--------Second Half is up now! Look below-------
--------Fist Half of October has been revised 9/26/05-----
Brief Description of who I am:

        My name is Grant LeBlanc and I am an avid amateur weather goo roo. Im currently studying weather and plan on taking courses in Meteorology soon. I have done a previous study reports on windstorms last year and I am currently working on Western Oregon Snow Events, to help better understand and predict Snow Events in this area. To help me forecast this years events I take into consideration of other peoples studies, and weigh them out (the majority) and study that particular forecast to see if I can integrate that into my forecast. I also look at patterns of previous events and take a look at the current El Nino pattern. Enjoy!

Preview:
        As of now, the current SST Patterns look to be about Neutral for a good part of this Winter. Back in 2003-2004 Winter that was a Neutral year as well but saw an extreme winter weather event (The New Years Snow Storm). Interesting enough, this years SST's look almost identical to 2003-2004's SST except a little cooler this year. That said, Neutral years are fairly more complicated to predict, one neutral year can be extreme and the next can be quiet. Using the past events and this current pattern we're in and a previous report I made about windstorms; we can expect at least 2 snow events and a windstorm. I would lean more towards a windstorm (45mph+ winds) due to the fact that we are over due for one. There is also a chance we could see 2 wind events, but that is not likely. Here's what you can look forward to...

October-December 2005:
            The First half of October looks to be just about right on average in temperatures as well as precipitation. The second half of October looks to be about average in temperatures and average to below average precipitation.
            In early November, looks to be below average temperatures and about average in precipitation. And a good chance to see a wind event. While the last part of November will be about average in temperatures and above average in precipitation.
            First half of December look forward to average temperatures, and above average precipitation. Also a chance to see a snow event. The last half, expect average temperatures and average precipitation.

In Conclusion to the first half...
        Expect a fairly average transition to fall in October with a warm start, concluding to average temperatures towards the end of the month. In November, expect a chance for 1 extreme event. A good chance for a Windstorm. Also expect above average precipitation at the end of November into early December and a chance for a snow event in the first half of December. The year will end on a fairly quiet note.

Second Half of the Predictions:

   
Preview:
        On the first half of the predictions I mentioned that we were in a Neutral state in the Tropics. The SST's continue to drop and now we are looking at a possible weak La Nina. But will this have an effect on this winter? I believe so, but will make little impact, in part to the fact that we are still expecting an above average winter in precipitation. In the second half (January-February-March), we can expect a greater chance to see cold weather and snow. In part to weather indices, I am also using astrological signs including the Venus Retrograde that will occur in 2006. Patterns from this cycle are believed to bring cold weather to the northern 48 and that includes us. So here goes!

January-March 2006:
        The First half of January looks to be cool with below average temperatures and about normal in precipitation. Another good chance to see snow in this period. The second half of Jan. seems to be average to below average in temperatures with above average precipitation.
        In early February, looks to be below average temperatures and above average in precipitation. And a good chance to see another snow event, and a good chance to see Arctic Air. While the last part of February will be about average in temperatures and above average in precipitation.
        First half of March look forward to average to above average temperatures, and above average precipitation due to a great chance for tropical connections. The last half, expect average temperatures and average precipitation.

In Conclusion to the second half...
        Generally speaking, it will be a cold January and February, I believe that we can see a couple Arctic Events slip by. By the end of Feb into March, we can start to see a change in the jet, which will most likely start to tap into some tropical moisture and will likely give us good rainfall and good chances for floods. It will be a good winter either other way, so enjoy!